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In the year 2100, June temperatures in Las Vegas, Nevada, will be as hot as June temperatures were in Miami in 1950 if current greenhouse gas emission trends continue. This corresponds to an increase in average summer temperatures by 2 degrees celsius - a pattern that could prevail across the continental United States during the rest of the century, according to projections from the Lawrence Livermore National Laboratory. 

In the framework of the World Climate Research Program’s Coupled Model Intercomparison Project, different climate models were run on varying assumed levels of emissions to estimate the probability of climate change and the level of uncertainty regarding climate projections. In the current stage of the project, researchers have derived disaggregated monthly temperatures and hydrology projections on spatial and temporal scales over the contiguous US from 1950 to 2099. The complete dataset containing these projections can be found here.

  • Global climate projections are based on climate models and represent atmospheric responses to deviations (or anomalies) of ocean thermal conditions from the norm, and increases of greenhouse gases emissions to the atmosphere, among other factors.
  • Researchers obtain local climate projections for US cities (see below), in turn, from global climate projections through a downscaling technique.