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In the year 2100, June temperatures in Las Vegas, Nevada, will be as hot as June temperatures were in Miami in 1950 if current greenhouse gas emission trends continue. This corresponds to an increase in average summer temperatures by 2 degrees celsius - a pattern that could prevail across the continental United States during the rest of the century, according to projections from the Lawrence Livermore National Laboratory. 

In the framework of the World Climate Research Program’s Coupled Model Intercomparison Project, different climate models with different scenarios of emissions are run to estimate the probability of climate change in the future and the level of climate projection uncertainty. In the current stage of the project, researchers derived disaggregated monthly temperatures and hydrology projections at spatial and temporal scale over the contiguous US from 1950 to 2099. The complete dataset containing these projections can be found here.

  • Global climate projections are based on climate models and represent atmospheric responses to deviations (or anomalies) of ocean thermal conditions from the norm, increases of greenhouse gases emissions to the atmosphere as well as other factors.
  • Researchers obtain local climate projections for US cities (see below), in turn, from global climate projections through a downscaling technique.