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 Also we will consider the leading index. That predicts the 6-month growth rate of the state's coincident index. The models also include: state-level housing permits (1 to 4 units), state initial unemployment insurance claims, delivery times from the Institute for Supply Management (ISM) manufacturing survey, and the interest rate spread between the 10-year Treasury bond and the 3-month Treasury bill.

 

Source: Fred, Production & Business Activity

 

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